Curse

wolfwing · Sep 25, 2007, 09:01 PM // 21:01

Okay, I posted this back when GWEN came out and people said it's just randomness. SHortly after that I got 20k/2k even for luck/unlucky title. Now a few weeks later I have 39,250k and 4,800, a huge difference, latly I've been retaining one lockpick for every 4-6 failed, and this is with a now gained 49% retaining. Anyone else noticing weird ness with this?

CyberMesh0 · Sep 25, 2007, 09:06 PM // 21:06

My solution to this problem (since I had a running 10:1 retention on 48%) was to ignore the existence of lockpicks altogether. I'm not only happier now, I'm much richer. I know, it means no TH title. Fine by me, if it cuts out the accompanying frustration.

Linksys · Sep 25, 2007, 09:06 PM // 21:06

I don't have a lucky title but have r3 in treasure and wisdom title tracks, making it 49% for me. At first the lockpick mostly retained for me. Now it's about 50/50.

Which averages about 600 gold per chest opened for me(with access to a discount merchant). For the treasure hunter track, I just get the Kurzick keys instead for 480gold each. That way I'm no gambling and settling for an amount I know I'm paying. Also, the items the chest yields often sell for a good portion of that cost at the merchant and sometimes I may get some weapon mods I can sell.

wolfwing · Sep 25, 2007, 09:17 PM // 21:17

Heh I really wish games would not lie on %. Seriously, other then a brief stint 3 weeks ago, I've yet to have any real run of luck.

Diddy bow · Sep 25, 2007, 09:38 PM // 21:38

Out of a few million players there is a great chance a few will get really really bad luck.

...I am one of them

Senrath · Sep 25, 2007, 09:56 PM // 21:56

They aren't lying about the percentages. It's just basic statistics. Although you may have a certain retention rate, that rate comes into play each and every time, with no bias. That means, given a 50% retention rate, each and every chest would have a 50% chance of retaining your lockpick, regardless of what happened on the previous chest. However, because of that, the probability of you actually retaining 50% of your lockpicks over a larger number of chests is much smaller than 50%.

wolfwing · Sep 25, 2007, 10:06 PM // 22:06

Oh come on, please Senrath...don't give me BS. Show me someone who retains 80% of their lockpicks on a regular basis and I might believe you. Thats the defense all the time, it's just a base 50% chance every time. If 100 people flip a coin and it lands 80% heads for all of them, would you call it random chance? Or assume the coins fixed?

Amalek · Sep 25, 2007, 10:15 PM // 22:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolfwing

Oh come on, please Senrath...don't give me BS. Show me someone who retains 80% of their lockpicks on a regular basis and I might believe you. Thats the defense all the time, it's just a base 50% chance every time. If 100 people flip a coin and it lands 80% heads for all of them, would you call it random chance? Or assume the coins fixed?

Random chance. Same deal with people sometimes going 20 casts without hitting either 20% HSR or HCT, and then getting 5 in a row. The dumb conspiracy theory stuff is... well, dumb.

Davros Uitar · Sep 25, 2007, 10:31 PM // 22:31

Opened about 4000 chests with lockpicks and I am happy that I am getting my base percentage, covering the cost of the picks, and making a lot of money on the side. Sure I merchant a lot of items, but you have to know what has recoverable value as well (ie what salvages to gems, the value of dust, what mods are saleable and what are not).

If you can't afford to ride out the bumps with lockpicks you will always feel screwed over.

wolfwing · Sep 25, 2007, 10:47 PM // 22:47

Nahhh I'm in it for the long run..:> It's just been this way for 80% of my playing.

Senrath · Sep 25, 2007, 10:48 PM // 22:48

Um, I never said it was actually a 50% base chance. That was just the number I picked for an easy example. And yes, I would call it random chance.

Jecht Scye · Sep 25, 2007, 11:22 PM // 23:22

I've been breaking much more than 50% lately, and that's the percentage it says I have when I open a chest. At one time I broke 8 straight.

Neo Nugget · Sep 25, 2007, 11:49 PM // 23:49

I don't bother opening chests in GW:EN. I think there should be something like a key of the north for 600g like all the regular chests. But lockpicks only for HM.

Corwin_Andros · Sep 26, 2007, 12:12 AM // 00:12

All of my lockpicks work perfectly. Each and every one of them gets me a guaranteed 750gp at the merchant.

lacasner · Sep 26, 2007, 12:17 AM // 00:17

I wouldn't mind the breaking of lockpicks if there were actually some items which were worthwhile opening for that don't have a ridiculously low drop percentage(i.e. elemental sword).

A11Eur0 · Sep 26, 2007, 01:50 AM // 01:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Senrath

They aren't lying about the percentages. It's just basic statistics. Although you may have a certain retention rate, that rate comes into play each and every time, with no bias. That means, given a 50% retention rate, each and every chest would have a 50% chance of retaining your lockpick, regardless of what happened on the previous chest. However, because of that, the probability of you actually retaining 50% of your lockpicks over a larger number of chests is much smaller than 50%.

You started out well, but ended on a dud.

Statistically speaking, the larger the sample the population, the more likely you are to come close to the expected average of 50%(if that's the case). You take instantaneous luck or unluck out of the equation when you have a pool of hundreds of chests. When someone says "i broke 5 lockpicks yesterday and only kept one...this is broken!", they're more inaccurate than someone saying "I've used 300 lockpicks over the past month and kept only 20% of them, this is broken!"

Sure the chance still exists that you can have a much lower rate of retention than expected, but that chance diminishes as the sample size grows.

combatchuck · Sep 26, 2007, 04:00 AM // 04:00

If you were to go to a casino, and you had $100 with you. You play a game that has a 50% chance to pay out double your bet. So, if you bet one dollar, you can win two. You will fluctuate around, but once you hit zero, you can't play any more. It's the same with lockpicks, except that when you "win" with a chest, it doesn't give you more lockpicks. Once you reach zero, you have to buy more lockpicks. The nature of gambling means that you will lose money, especially on something with such a low payout. With chest drops, it's either fantastic or merch food. I've been playing since the original preview, and I've only gotten one fantastic chest drop.

This is why they say "the house always wins". Because once you're out, you can't gamble any more. There's a reason they call it a gamble. If they evened the odds, the potential reward would be less valuable.

EDIT: Made it a general reply to the thread instead of being possibly taken as an attack.

Crowell The Fallen · Sep 26, 2007, 05:00 AM // 05:00

I found that once i hit 57% retain rate from locked chests i was keeping 90% of all my picks. i might only have 1 pick break for every 5 chests. However, when i was on 54%, all my picks broke.

wilebill · Sep 26, 2007, 05:30 AM // 05:30

Seen a lot of lockpicks used in dungeons. Not seen anyone get anything worth the lockpick price. Not me neither.

VanDamselx · Sep 26, 2007, 05:36 AM // 05:36

I'm fine right now. In fact my lock picks seem to rarely break.